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🔥 Reddit - askscience - Can someone explain the science (or math) behind basic blackjack strategy and card counting?

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You may hear players say that the dealer has a �bust card� when playing blackjack in a casino. Those are the cards that you can see where the dealer has the greatest chance of busting. According to the probability above, the dealer will bust more than 42% of the time they have a 6 showing.
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[math/0412311] Finding Blackjack's Optimal Strategy in Real-time and Player's Expected Win Mathematics behind blackjack

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mathematics behind blackjack Which of the following statements about blackjack is true?
When players have a losing session at blackjack, they are quick to put the blame on someone or something.
They would never consider that their losses may be due to the fact that they haven't a clue about or their loss is simply due to the variability that is part of the latter means that even the most skillful players will have losing sessions.
It just makes more sense to blame that nerd at third base who, allegedly, killed the table with his stupid plays.
If you are serious about wanting tothen the very first thing you absolutely must do is to separate the truth from fiction; otherwise, you will be like most blackjack players, who always have an excuse for their losses.
I could write many pages of blackjack myths that have come to my attention over the past 50 years.
Instead, I've selected the most talked about and misunderstood myths about the game, the reason for the myth, and the mathematics behind blackjack />Are you ready for some debunking?
MYTH 1: THE OBJECTIVE OF BLACKJACK IS TO GET AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO 21.
The Reason: Some authors and casino marketing folks try to over-simplify the objective of the game.
The Truth: The objective is to beat the dealer by either 1 having a higher final total than the dealer, or 2 not busting before the dealer busts.
Those are the only two ways you can beat the dealer's hand.
It is not to get as close to 21 as possible, if you always try to do the latter, you'll be broke before the end of the day.
MYTH 2: THAT THIRD BASE PLAYER IS KILLING ME.
The Reason: The dealer shows a weak 5 up card and all the players, including you, make the right play and stand on all stiff totals.
The third baseman, who is the last player to act before the dealer, ponders whether to hit or stand on 16.
He hits, the dealer gives him a picture card, and then the dealer flips a 10 in the go here and draws a 6 to her 15 for a 21, beating everyone.
Oh, how you would like mathematics behind blackjack strangle the third base player!
If the dummy would have stood like he was supposed to, the dealer would have gotten the picture card instead and broken, and everyone would have won.
Don't tell me bad players don't affect whether or not I win or lose.
The Truth: It's absolutely true that dumb plays made by dumb players can affect the outcome of a hand for everyone else.
Had the two hit cards been reversed, the player in the above example could have just as easily gotten the 6, leaving the picture card for the dealer to bust.
While dumb plays can upset mathematics behind blackjack players, they have no mathematical long-term effect on a player's expected outcome.
You always curse the stupid player that caused you to lose, but read article you ever congratulate him when his stupid play causes you to win?
If the terrible play of others affects you emotionally so that you start to make playing mistakes, then my advice is to leave the table and play elsewhere.
MYTH 3: I'M DUE TO WIN.
The Reason: The dealer has won five hands in a row.
Blackjack is an even game, so my chances of winning the next hand are good.
I'll bet up to recoup my losses.
The Truth: The cards don't give a flip that you have lost the last five hands in a row.
In fact, the chances of your winning the next hand are independent of whether you lost, tied, or won the last five hands.
Over the short haul, such as a few hours of play, don't bet that you are due to win based upon what has just occurred.
MYTH 4: PLAY AT TABLES WHERE THE DEALER IS COLD.
So, likewise, picking tables where the dealer seems cold is a waste of time.
MYTH 5: A NEW PLAYER ENTERING MID-SHOE WILL CHANGE THE ORDER OF THE CARDS AND CAUSE YOU TO LOSE.
The Reason: Players remember when they were enjoying a winning streak and then Mary Clueless jumps into the game mid-shoe, adds another hand to the round, and the dealer starts killing everyone.
There was nothing sacred about the number of hands being dealt before poor Mary jumped in and started to play.
MYTH 6: ALWAYS ASSUME THE DEALER HAS A 10 IN THE HOLE.
The 2020 vegas $3 in blackjack Since there are more ranked cards in a deck that count 10 in blackjack the tens, jacks, queen, and kingsplayers often assume that the dealer always will have a 10 in the hole, and are often advised to play their hand accordingly.
The Truth: There are 16 cards out of 52 in a deck that have a value of 10.
That means only about 31% of the time will she have a 10 in the hole, while 69% of the time, she will blackjack online game real money some other card in the hole.
MYTH 7: PICTURES FOLLOW PICTURES.
The Reason: Players who just saw a face card will refuse to hit their stiff hands because they believe that a face card always follows another face card.
The Truth: If anything, the opposite is true.
When you have a stiff hand, simply follow the basic playing strategy and ignore the nonsense that pictures always follow pictures.
MYTH 8: PROGRESSIVE BETTING SYSTEMS CAN OVERCOME THE HOUSE EDGE.
The Reason: Many players believe that a betting progression, such as a positive progression where you increase your bet following a win and decrease following a loss, will take advantage of streaks of wins and leave you with a net profit.
The Truth: were discussed in great detail in Chapter 7.
Suffice check this out to say againthat mathematically speaking, betting progressions cannot and will not give an edge.
The Reason: Most players believe that casinos have the mathematical advantage in all gambling games, so to win requires luck.
The Truth: There is luck involved when source play blackjack but overriding the luck is the skill of the player.
You have to make playing decisions on the more info that will be dealt to you, and your decisions will affect the outcome of the hand.
And learning card counting coming in Chapter 10 will allow you to have the mathematical advantage over the casino.
MYTH 10: ALWAYS INSURE YOUR GOOD HANDS AGAINST A DEALER'S ACE.
The Reason: If the dealer ends up with a blackjack, you can avoid losing money on your good hand by insuring it.
For example, assume you have a 20.
check this out are holding two 10-value cards that the dealer needs in order for you to win your remember you win your insurance bet only when the dealer's hole card is a ten-value card, giving her a blackjack hand.
Because you have two of the cards she needs for a blackjack, the odds of her getting a blackjack are worse.
see more 20 has an excellent chance of winning; don't mess it up by taking insurance translation: don't make a bad bet to protect a good bet.
MYTH 11: NEVER HIT A 12 AGAINST A DEALER'S 2 UPCARD BECAUSE YOU WILL INVARIABLY DRAW A 10 AND BUST.
The Reason: More often than not, players will draw a 10 when they hit a 12 against a dealer's 2 or 3.
They figure if they would have stood and the dealer's downcard were a 10, the dealer would have had to hit his 12, caught the 10 and broken.
Instead here losing the hand, they would have won.
The Truth: If you hit the 12, you will win about 37 percent of the time and lose 63 percent of the time.
If you stand on 12, you will win 35 percent and lose 65 percent.
You agree that a hard 12 against a dealer's 2 blackjack apk android a lousy hand.
Whether we stand or hit, the casino has us beat over the long run.
But is it better to win 35 percent or 37 percent of the hands?
I hope you agree that winning 37 percent of the hands is slightly better than winning 35 percent of the hands.
So hitting is the better play, not because you'll win a lot of money with this play, but because hitting will check this out you some money when you are in a losing situation.
So even though you'll get your fair share of see more when you hit 12 and break, it's still the better play to make.
MYTH 12: ALWAYS STAND ON SOFT 18.
The Reason: An 18 is a good hand; don't mess with it.
The Truth: A soft 18 is a good hand when the dealer shows a 2 or 7 up card.
But against mathematics behind blackjack dealer's weak up card of 3, 4, 5, or 6, the better play to make is to double down.
You do it not to improve your position, but to put more money on the table when the dealer is most vulnerable to busting.
MYTH 13: CARD COUNTING IS ILLEGAL.
The Truth: Using your brains when you play blackjack is not illegal, and as you will learn in Chapter 10, card counting is nothing more than using your brains to track specific cards as they are played.
The casinos would much rather have players that know how to lose rather than players that know how to win sitting at their blackjack tables.
MYTH 14: YOU HAVE TO HAVE A PHOTOGRAPHIC MEMORY TO COUNT CARDS.
The Reason: The Hollywood movie Rain Man helps perpetuate this myth.
The public mistakenly believes that card counting involves memorizing every card being dealt, as actor Dustin Hoffman did in the character he portrayed in Rain Man, a feat that requires a photographic memory.
The Truth: Traditional card counting does not � let me repeat that one more time so it is clear � does not require a photographic memory.
TEST Mathematics behind blackjack Which of the following statements about blackjack is true T or a myth M.
Answers All of the above are myths except 12.
Written by Henry Tamburin Ph.
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